Continuing To Make Progress

I was able to adjust EIA's monthly crude oil and petroleum products production data for seasonality - result below.  This allows the Energy Industry Investment Model to better gauge how production impacts the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF's (XLE) price.  The seasonal index hasn't been committed to the model until I've completed the statistical tests on my investment models.   These tests are necessary to ensure that my models can withstand the scrutiny of investment professionals and built well. 

Source: EIA

Fortunately this weekend, I was also able to perform a few statistical tests.  I'm still interpreting the results, there isn't anything noteworthy to report yet.  The tests are a high priority and will be continued this weekend.  Lastly, I also started work on a consumer staples database to better automate the data gathering process. 


My outstanding to-do-list in order of priority:

1. Continue to run statistical tests on model built quality
   
2. Finish building the Stock Market Investment Model
3. Finish building the Consumer Discretionary Industry Investment Model
4. Write an energy industry article
5. Investigate why the price estimate of my Energy Industry Investment Model is much lower than the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF's (XLE) price.  I'm looking for evidence to support my hypothesis that dividend investors are propping up energy industry stocks.
6. Investigate dot com era, dot com crash, and subsequent recovery effects on both the energy and consumer staples industry investment models.
7. Investigate why merchant wholesaler inventory levels affects consumer staples industry stocks.  I suspect two reasons: higher merchant wholesaler inventory levels equate to higher profit margins for consumer staples retailers or inventory levels is a result of future sales expectations. 
8. Write an article about lessons I learned from Mohegan Sun casino.
9. Write an article about how to identify stock market tops.

Thank you for your patience while I run my statistical tests.